A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
