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Residents of the Big Apple will discover the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and defends the country's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to send armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The contest has become an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of cautious, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A NYC defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced difficulties in the final phase, after footage surfaced suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a DSA convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd